Political and Economic Uncertainty Slows European Construction Recovery
Warsaw, Poland – June 6, 2025 – The current dynamics and short-term scenario for the construction sector in 2025–27 will be influenced by a slight improvement in the economic situation. However, there is continuing high uncertainty surrounding the multifaceted negative consequences of the war in Ukraine and changes in US tariffs.
The inflationary shock caused by the outbreak of war in Ukraine is gradually subsiding, and the overall economic outlook is positive. The drop in inflation has improved construction financing conditions as a result of falling interest rates, increased investor creditworthiness and the launch of EU investment financing.
After the collapse of the construction market in 2023, following high activity increases in 2021 and 2022, the decline in production deepened in 2024, which was the worst year for the European construction sector since 2020. As a result, construction activity in the 19 EUROCONSTRUCT countries, according to current estimates, decreased by 2.1% in 2024 (0.3 percentage points less than forecasted half a year ago at the Milan conference).
The current forecast indicates a reversal of the negative trend and a return to the growth path in the next few years, starting from 2025. EUROCONSTRUCT’s recent summer forecast for the upcoming years is positive – following the improvement in the financing conditions for housing construction and support from EU funds, the network expects an increase in housing demand and infrastructure investments despite the rising costs of construction activities.
Most of the influencing factors are directed towards the growth of construction production in the next few years. On this basis, EUROCONSTRUCT predicts that after the decline in the previous two years, in 2025 the downward trend will be broken and production in the EUROCONSTRUCT area will increase by 0.3%, and in the following years 2026-2027 the increase will amount to only around 2%.
The currently predicted total value of the construction market in 19 EC countries in 2027 compared to the level achieved in 2021 will be lower by 1.4%, but compared to 2024 it will be higher by 3.5%.
European construction, which was saved from a deeper decline in 2022-2024 by renovation of existing stock, will regain vigour in the horizon of the current medium-term forecast until 2027 thanks to the increase in demand for new construction.
Poland may note the strongest cumulative growth in 2025-2027 as a result of double-digit growth in both investment and renovation construction.
In turn, in Ireland, the high cumulative growth by 2027 will be mainly the result of an increase in demand for new construction.
All three major segments of the construction market in the EC-19 will grow in real terms between 2025 and 2027, but the outlook for their growth is not very optimistic, as the expected rate does not exceed 2-3%. This includes both volume and civil engineering construction, as well as investment and renovation.
In line with current projections for 2025–2027, EUROCONSTRUCT predicts that the downward trend in residential construction will continue until at least 2025. However, in 2026-2027, market growth, mainly in new housing construction, will return. Sluggish domestic demand and weak public sector finances are likely to continue to hinder non-residential construction growth in most European countries between 2025 and 2027. EUROCONSTRUCT predicts only minor growth in new non-residential construction.
The research network expects the rate of growth in total civil engineering construction also to remain low in the coming years.
The projected stagnant growth in construction over the forecast horizon reflects the high level of uncertainty about the direction of further economic development in European countries.
The growth of total construction production in 2025-2027, the average cumulative growth of which in these years will amount to 4.6%, will be driven by construction of residential buildings.
The cumulative double-digit growth in 2025-2027 will occur in 7 EC countries, the highest of which: Poland (16.5%), Sweden (15.8%) and Ireland (15.2%).
Among the 5 largest EC countries, high cumulative growth will occur in Spain (10.5%) and the UK (10.3%), in France the growth will amount to 3.7%.
A significant decline, is predicted in the construction market in Italy (-5.8), while stagnation trends will characterize the situation in Germany, Austria and Belgium.
Table 1: Evolution of construction output in the EUROCONSTRUCT 19 area
S: EUROCONSTRUCT (June 2025). – 99th Conference.
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About EUROCONSTRUCT
The 99th EUROCONSTRUCT-Conference was held in Warsaw on 6 June 2025, hosted by PAB PCR&F
EUROCONSTRUCT was founded in 1974 by specialised research organisations from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom as a study group for construction analysis and forecasting. It has since expanded from this core group to include almost all Western European countries and 4 Central Eastern European countries. Currently, EUROCONSTRUCT has member institutes in 19 European countries.
The objective of EUROCONSTRUCT is to provide information, analysis and forecasts to decision-makers in the construction sector and other markets related to the construction industry, to enable them to plan their business better and more effectively. The activities of the EUROCONSTRUCT network are also aimed at official institutions such as ministries or agencies, as well as national and international associations.
